These models are predicting the life cycle or the end date of coronavirus in certain countries based on a newest research project made by Singapore University of Technology and Design.
This research project that was created by the Singapore University of Technology and Design used data-based approximate estimations that created models which show the coronavirus life-cycle in specific countries in the world, and estimated an “end date” for the Coronavirus outbreak globally and in these specific countries, including the most affected like US, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, India and Turkey.
The research was using the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model which perfectly described the spread of infectious diseases and data of coronavirus cases as of May 7.
This so called SIR model is using three differential equations to describe the dynamic flow of people separated in three different categories: S for the # of people ‘susceptible’ to infection, I for the # of infectious people, and R for the number of removed people (either recovered/ cured or died) in the population.
This SIR model is incorporating two main parameters, beta and gamma. Gamma is showing the number of days an infected person is contagious and is a property of the virus. Beta is showing the average number of people infected due to coming in contact with a previously infected person and is related not only to the interaction patterns of people in a society (which social distancing can influence) but also the infection process properties of the virus.
This model also shows a bell-shape curve where the left most end of the curve’s tail represents the first confirmed case of Covid-19 in a country, and the right most end of the curve’s tail represents the last predicted case of infection, the inflection point or the peak in the bell-shape curve represents the highest number of cases after which the rate of infection begins to slow down, and the area under the entire curve which represents the total predicted number of people who will have contracted the virus.
The research predicts that the Covid-19 “end date” in the world will be on January 5, 2021.
It also predicted theoretical “end dates” for the coronavirus outbreak in these countries:
United States: October 22, 2020.
United Kingdom: September 30, 2020.
Italy: October 23, 2020.
France: August 25, 2020.
Spain: August 15, 2020.
Germany: August 20, 2020.
India: October 19, 2020.
Turkey: September 11, 2020.
The research paper stressed that the predictions are uncertain and subject to change depending on real-world developments such as government policies, testing protocols and human behaviors.
This article was originally posted on https://english.alarabiya.net/